“…Sitting on considerable savings and waiting for the right time to jump in. But the question is when, right? You have to do research on your area and see what prices were during the last “normal” market. Roll forward by an acceptable rate of appreciation/inflation, and that’s what you should be willing to pay today.”

Why does this type of buying approach not work even in today’s market?

I’d like the share my experience since a good portion of my youth was spent outside of the US. My father and many of his friends bought houses when they left the country on assignment. But they weren’t flippers, they just knew that the DC area is a long-term hold (it’s a no-brainer when you think of it the way they do). They’re able to ride out all the cycles that way. My family owns a TH in Reston my father purchased in 1983 when we were leaving for Indonesia (we’ve lived in it a total of 3 months ever). He purchased a condo in Reston in 2002 and he has no intention of selling. One of his friends passed away several years ago and had about 6 homes inside the beltway that he’d accumulated over the years – and this is on a US Govt/USAID/consultant type salary. Not bad money, but not Bill Gates cash either. Imagine owning several homes free and clear in the DC area.

I wouldn’t do a 3-year hold in DC, but I would certainly do a 20-year investment. In the long run, DC will continue to appreciate. The question is whether the buyer has the time and understanding of this.