Comments on: Attn. Market Timers! The EXACT Best Day to Buy! http://blog.franklyrealty.com/2007/09/attn-market-timers-exact-best-day-to.html Tue, 02 Mar 2010 02:11:05 -0800 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: The "Best" Time to Buy a Home or Investment Property? | 1to4plex.com http://blog.franklyrealty.com/2007/09/attn-market-timers-exact-best-day-to.html/comment-page-1#comment-3964 The "Best" Time to Buy a Home or Investment Property? | 1to4plex.com Tue, 07 Jul 2009 05:43:51 +0000 http://franktempblog.wordpress.com/2007/09/04/attn-market-timers-the-exact-best-day-to-buy/#comment-3964 [...] and layoffs.   However, as real estate broker and blogger Frank Borges Llosa put it in his blog, the exact correct day to buy is simply “the day you stop caring about the bottom of the [...] [...] and layoffs.   However, as real estate broker and blogger Frank Borges Llosa put it in his blog, the exact correct day to buy is simply “the day you stop caring about the bottom of the [...]

]]> By: Anonymous http://blog.franklyrealty.com/2007/09/attn-market-timers-exact-best-day-to.html/comment-page-1#comment-2380 Anonymous Mon, 29 Sep 2008 02:30:00 +0000 http://franktempblog.wordpress.com/2007/09/04/attn-market-timers-the-exact-best-day-to-buy/#comment-2380 Do I get a prize for the FNM and FRE comments above? While I don't like being right about them, I did put my money where my mouth is and rode both down with six-month puts bought in August. Do I get a prize for the FNM and FRE comments above? While I don’t like being right about them, I did put my money where my mouth is and rode both down with six-month puts bought in August.

]]> By: Anonymous http://blog.franklyrealty.com/2007/09/attn-market-timers-exact-best-day-to.html/comment-page-1#comment-2381 Anonymous Wed, 03 Sep 2008 04:46:00 +0000 http://franktempblog.wordpress.com/2007/09/04/attn-market-timers-the-exact-best-day-to-buy/#comment-2381 REOs are an interesting angle, but I don't see why you can't play the entire market with a modified valuation methodology, Frank. So you lose a few offers; sooner or later one will stick, especially with the methodology incorporating market-based and trend-based variables. The problem is finding an agent willing to work with you over 1- to 2-years. Perhaps a RE attorney might make more sense. REOs are an interesting angle, but I don’t see why you can’t play the entire market with a modified valuation methodology, Frank. So you lose a few offers; sooner or later one will stick, especially with the methodology incorporating market-based and trend-based variables. The problem is finding an agent willing to work with you over 1- to 2-years. Perhaps a RE attorney might make more sense.

]]> By: FRANK LL0SA Va Broker- BLOG.FranklyRealty.com http://blog.franklyrealty.com/2007/09/attn-market-timers-exact-best-day-to.html/comment-page-1#comment-2379 FRANK LL0SA Va Broker- BLOG.FranklyRealty.com Tue, 29 Jul 2008 17:12:00 +0000 http://franktempblog.wordpress.com/2007/09/04/attn-market-timers-the-exact-best-day-to-buy/#comment-2379 Hey Anonymous,<br/>I don't know of one building that has dropped 13%. I don't know where they get their numbers.<br/><br/>What specific area are you looking? I would love to see what the trends are there.<br/><br/>Also don't forget, an interest rate jump from 6 to 6.6% is a 10% increase in your monthly payments. So if you bought in Sept 07 with a lower rate, you would be paying about the same per month right now vs buying it for 13% less (a number that I question).<br/><br/><br/>But sure, I don't think the recovery will happen any time soon. I just met somebody that said it took them 13 years to break even on their condo.<br/><br/>Since you are willing to "slow play" it, I would suggest that you sign up for email alerts for bank owned properties on the MLS. It would be better for you to be patient and get one of these, vs jumping in in a year and saying "I need something right away." Sometimes a good bank property might only come along once every 3-6 months (if you are in Arlington).<br/><br/>Hope that makes sense.<br/><br/>Farnk Hey Anonymous,
I don’t know of one building that has dropped 13%. I don’t know where they get their numbers.

What specific area are you looking? I would love to see what the trends are there.

Also don’t forget, an interest rate jump from 6 to 6.6% is a 10% increase in your monthly payments. So if you bought in Sept 07 with a lower rate, you would be paying about the same per month right now vs buying it for 13% less (a number that I question).

But sure, I don’t think the recovery will happen any time soon. I just met somebody that said it took them 13 years to break even on their condo.

Since you are willing to “slow play” it, I would suggest that you sign up for email alerts for bank owned properties on the MLS. It would be better for you to be patient and get one of these, vs jumping in in a year and saying “I need something right away.” Sometimes a good bank property might only come along once every 3-6 months (if you are in Arlington).

Hope that makes sense.

Farnk

]]> By: Anonymous http://blog.franklyrealty.com/2007/09/attn-market-timers-exact-best-day-to.html/comment-page-1#comment-2378 Anonymous Tue, 29 Jul 2008 17:04:00 +0000 http://franktempblog.wordpress.com/2007/09/04/attn-market-timers-the-exact-best-day-to-buy/#comment-2378 Case-Shiller for May 2008 came out today. It's approximately 9 months (with the two-month lag in the index) since you published this article. I was ready in September 2007 to buy. The Washington DC index has dropped 13.1% during that period. How many home buyers will be happy that they negotiated a good price last September? I'm still ready to buy, but I'd be a fool to ignore the numerous macro- and micro-economic factors that imply continuing downward pressure on home prices. I don't have a crystal ball to pick an exact date for recovery. However, I'd rather pay a little more and buy on the upswing (perhaps 2 quarters of improvement and solid fundamentals). Case-Shiller for May 2008 came out today. It’s approximately 9 months (with the two-month lag in the index) since you published this article. I was ready in September 2007 to buy. The Washington DC index has dropped 13.1% during that period. How many home buyers will be happy that they negotiated a good price last September? I’m still ready to buy, but I’d be a fool to ignore the numerous macro- and micro-economic factors that imply continuing downward pressure on home prices. I don’t have a crystal ball to pick an exact date for recovery. However, I’d rather pay a little more and buy on the upswing (perhaps 2 quarters of improvement and solid fundamentals).

]]> By: Anonymous http://blog.franklyrealty.com/2007/09/attn-market-timers-exact-best-day-to.html/comment-page-1#comment-2377 Anonymous Tue, 22 Jul 2008 21:48:00 +0000 http://franktempblog.wordpress.com/2007/09/04/attn-market-timers-the-exact-best-day-to-buy/#comment-2377 Securities analysis has a fundamental approach to valuing companies. Certainly, rental cash flow shows prices to be out of whack, so the similarity doesn't convey well. However, market forces also play a role in securities analysis. It seems to be playing out in real estate as well. What happens when FNM and FRE run out of capital or have a short-term interruption in buying mortgages? The Treasury cannot *FLOOD* the bond market as overseas investors only have so much appetite. And if the highly dilutive equity offering doesn't fly, continuity of operations will be seriously jeapordized. Closings don't go over so well when the bank doesn't show up.<br/><br/>Precisely timing the market is definitely a poor use of time. Ignore clear signals at your own risk. Securities analysis has a fundamental approach to valuing companies. Certainly, rental cash flow shows prices to be out of whack, so the similarity doesn’t convey well. However, market forces also play a role in securities analysis. It seems to be playing out in real estate as well. What happens when FNM and FRE run out of capital or have a short-term interruption in buying mortgages? The Treasury cannot *FLOOD* the bond market as overseas investors only have so much appetite. And if the highly dilutive equity offering doesn’t fly, continuity of operations will be seriously jeapordized. Closings don’t go over so well when the bank doesn’t show up.

Precisely timing the market is definitely a poor use of time. Ignore clear signals at your own risk.

]]> By: FRANK LL0SA Va Broker- BLOG.FranklyRealty.com http://blog.franklyrealty.com/2007/09/attn-market-timers-exact-best-day-to.html/comment-page-1#comment-2411 FRANK LL0SA Va Broker- BLOG.FranklyRealty.com Tue, 18 Dec 2007 05:15:00 +0000 http://franktempblog.wordpress.com/2007/09/04/attn-market-timers-the-exact-best-day-to-buy/#comment-2411 Hey Anonymous,<br/>Have you read any of this blog, besides this post?<br/><br/>If you really think that homes are going to drop $100,000 in a "few months" then this blog is exactly right, then you should NOT BUY.<br/><br/>And if you are right, and it DOES drop $100k in a few months, guess what... you STILL won't buy, because you will think it will drop more.<br/><br/>Again, if you are trying to time the market, I don't suggest buying, ever. Hey Anonymous,
Have you read any of this blog, besides this post?

If you really think that homes are going to drop $100,000 in a “few months” then this blog is exactly right, then you should NOT BUY.

And if you are right, and it DOES drop $100k in a few months, guess what… you STILL won’t buy, because you will think it will drop more.

Again, if you are trying to time the market, I don’t suggest buying, ever.

]]> By: Anonymous http://blog.franklyrealty.com/2007/09/attn-market-timers-exact-best-day-to.html/comment-page-1#comment-2410 Anonymous Mon, 17 Dec 2007 19:53:00 +0000 http://franktempblog.wordpress.com/2007/09/04/attn-market-timers-the-exact-best-day-to-buy/#comment-2410 OK, so the best day is the day I decide to stop worrying and take on $100,000-200,000 in debt for 2-30 years that I could have avoided if I had just waited a few months?<br/><br/>So, your point is that $100,000 in debt magically disappears over the course of five years? Or that buyers should just suck it up and pay $1000 a month extra on upside down mortgages so that their Realtors (TM) can collect a nice commission?<br/><br/>Every time I think I've heard the worst line from a Realtor (TM), someone steps up with something even sleazier. OK, so the best day is the day I decide to stop worrying and take on $100,000-200,000 in debt for 2-30 years that I could have avoided if I had just waited a few months?

So, your point is that $100,000 in debt magically disappears over the course of five years? Or that buyers should just suck it up and pay $1000 a month extra on upside down mortgages so that their Realtors (TM) can collect a nice commission?

Every time I think I’ve heard the worst line from a Realtor (TM), someone steps up with something even sleazier.

]]> By: Developers Agent http://blog.franklyrealty.com/2007/09/attn-market-timers-exact-best-day-to.html/comment-page-1#comment-2409 Developers Agent Tue, 25 Sep 2007 21:38:00 +0000 http://franktempblog.wordpress.com/2007/09/04/attn-market-timers-the-exact-best-day-to-buy/#comment-2409 Hey there Frank, from just across the river. Thanks again for a great write-up. I'm sure all of us are quite sick of the low-ball offers and buyers who keep asking the question you so eloquently answered. <br/><br/>I hope you get as good a laugh as I did yesterday....I have a property on the market now for $695k, reduced from $850k, that was once ratified for $810k but couldnt go to settlement because my client, who also happens to be my traffic ticket attorney (dont ask) never filed the estate when his parents passed. We lost the contract.<br/><br/>Now we are $150k+ under the original asking price and I get a call from another agent who says her daughter has been looking at our listing for quite a while now and she thinks she is ready to write. So I asked what the general terms were and her response was "...Four Hundred Seventy Five Thousand..." I couldnt believe that another realtor had the audacity to ask me that about her family member. Am I crazy?<br/><br/><br/>Keep up the good blogging. Hey there Frank, from just across the river. Thanks again for a great write-up. I’m sure all of us are quite sick of the low-ball offers and buyers who keep asking the question you so eloquently answered.

I hope you get as good a laugh as I did yesterday….I have a property on the market now for $695k, reduced from $850k, that was once ratified for $810k but couldnt go to settlement because my client, who also happens to be my traffic ticket attorney (dont ask) never filed the estate when his parents passed. We lost the contract.

Now we are $150k+ under the original asking price and I get a call from another agent who says her daughter has been looking at our listing for quite a while now and she thinks she is ready to write. So I asked what the general terms were and her response was “…Four Hundred Seventy Five Thousand…” I couldnt believe that another realtor had the audacity to ask me that about her family member. Am I crazy?

Keep up the good blogging.

]]> By: Eric Ransom http://blog.franklyrealty.com/2007/09/attn-market-timers-exact-best-day-to.html/comment-page-1#comment-2408 Eric Ransom Tue, 11 Sep 2007 17:44:00 +0000 http://franktempblog.wordpress.com/2007/09/04/attn-market-timers-the-exact-best-day-to-buy/#comment-2408 Frank,<br/><br/>Good stuff here. Buyers need to realize that getting a great deal and getting a great place to live may not always co-exist. It is a ggod time to find "values" in our market, but I agree a "home" should come first! Frank,

Good stuff here. Buyers need to realize that getting a great deal and getting a great place to live may not always co-exist. It is a ggod time to find “values” in our market, but I agree a “home” should come first!

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